Monday, December 12, 2011

Pike Research: High Demand Spurs Hybrid and Plug-In EV Market Growth

With OEMs pumping out a number of new electric vehicles to consumers, such as the Chevrolet Volt and the new Mitsubishi i, and fossil fuel costs rising, the hybrid and plug-in EV market is moving to take a significant piece of the automotive sales pie, according to a report from Pike Research.

By 2017, the company predicts that these vehicles could make up more than 5 percent of total U.S. vehicle sales, it cited in its most recent “Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts” report.

Pike Research referenced the combination of consumer purchase incentives, rising fossil fuel costs, and “exciting new vehicle models” as reasons behind a strong early EV market.

In fact, just in recent weeks, both the Chevrolet Spark EV and the Honda Fit EV were officially launched, further illustrating that OEMs are catching on to what Pike Research calls high consumer demand in the early EV market.

Though the market is growing at a fast pace, Dave Hurst Pike Research senior analyst, says it isn’t climbing as fast as initially expected, noting, “The PEV (plug-in EV)  market is anticipated to miss many of the targets set by governments because vehicle programs have not been launching as rapidly as expected even a year ago.

“Those targets aside, though, the EV market will grow at a rapid clip in the next six years — at a rate of nearly 20 percent a year, compared to fewer than 4 percent for the worldwide market for vehicles of all kinds,” he continued.

What’s Selling in the U.S.?

According to the report, the U.S. plug-in vehicle market is being decisively led by two “key models”  — the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf.

That said, Pike Research doesn’t expect this to last for long, noting another Big 3 automaker is set to take over.

“Ford’s model diversification and recharging equipment strategy will shake up the market,” the company explained.

It predicts that Ford will take the market lead by 2017, with 23.6 percent of the plug-in vehicle market share.

Following the Blue Oval, Toyota — with a plug-in version of its popular Prius — and General Motors may find themselves fighting for second place with 21.1 percent and 20.7 percent market share, respectively, the report stated.

Also of interest, lesser-known startup Tesla may me making moves, as well.

Though high price points are expected to limit the company’s market share, Pike Research still predicts it will grow to hold 4.6 percent of the plug-in EV market share by 2017, compared to 2.2 percent this year.

North America Shows “High Demand" for Hybrid Units

Breaking it down by numbers, according to the report, hybrid EVs and plug-in EVs combined will represent 3.1 percent of worldwide auto sales by 2017.

That said, due to higher penetration rates in the U.S, the very same vehicles will account for 5.1 percent of total U.S. vehicle sales in 2017, the report stated.

So which regions are expected to experience the most rapid growth in the number of plug-in electric models?

According to the report, the Asia Pacific region is expected to see the most expansion, followed by Europe and North America.

“There will be 26 models of PEVs (plug-in EVs)  available in Asia Pacific by the end of 2011, compared to 23 models in Europe and ten in North America," company officials noted.


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